Season Forecast: 63-24
We are now in the stretch run to the playoffs. Approximately one month of regular season play remains, which means we can begin to interpret how the region rankings will probably shake out. In 5A it looks like the Wayne County versus West Jones clash on October 23 is going to live up to the billing – the winner will most likely take the 3-5A title and be sitting pretty in the first round of the postseason. If the Mustangs and War Eagles take care of business this weekend, the next weekend in Wayne County will be so full of drama that you could make a TV series out of it (Ooops! Almost forgot. They already did that, didn’t they?). You can read the predictions about the Mustangs’ and War Eagles’ games for this week below, but I will go ahead and tell you that both will win. That means West Jones will be 7-0 and Wayne County 7-1 coming into the showdown. In fact, I’ll go ahead and tell you who will win the showdown. Here is how it will shake out. In the first half the Mustangs . . . nah, let’s just wait until next week to reveal the winner. We’ve got to play the games on October 16 first. Picayune, by the way, has quietly posted a 3-0 record in 3-5A play. Keep an eye on them.
The picture in Region 5-4A is not much clearer than when we kicked off back in August. Even South Jones, which has struggled mightily to this point, could win their last three games and, with a little help, wind up in first place. West Lauderdale is the only team with an unbeaten region record at this point, but Laurel, Quitman, Northeast Jones and Northeast Lauderdale are all just a game out of first.
Philadelphia is the clear favorite in 5-3A, where Heidelberg High plays, and Raleigh is grouped with Morton, Velma Jackson and Forest in 6-3A. Those three teams could play in just about any region and win it, so Raleigh can only hope for fourth place. The Taylorsville Tartars are flexing their muscle in the 7-2A race, although Stringer could redeem the past two weeks and throw this region into chaos with an upset against the Tartars Friday. I’ve also got a sneaky feeling that Mize will be a very tough out for Taylorsville in the season-finale on October 30. This may surprise many readers, but I think Mize will play extremely focused their last three weeks and win 7-2A. You saw it here first.
The two academy teams in our coverage area with a chance to go deep into the playoffs are Heidelberg Academy and Sylva Bay. Their match-up on October 30 carries a lot of intrigue. The Rebels have the better record, but the Saints have played a tougher schedule, and an analysis of common opponents indicates a Sylva Bay victory. The Rebels would argue that the game is played on the field, not on a piece of paper, and they believe they will win. If HA whips Benton and Prentiss Christian – two of the better teams on their schedule – in the next two weeks, then their argument will carry more credibility. At this point Sylva Bay projects as the 8-A district winner.
Forest Hill at Wayne County: The War Eagles are up to some old tricks. The relative young team that Marcus Boyles entered the season with is starting to mature. The always potentially explosive tandem of quarterback Demarcus Henderson and receiver Malik Loftin is reaching full throttle, and the Wayne County defense is starting to clamp down hard on opponents. In its last game, the Wayne County defense smothered McComb, holding them to less than 70 total yards and zero points. Can the War Eagles pitch two straight shut-outs? Yep.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Wayne County – 30
Forest Hill – 0
Stone at West Jones: Mustangs’ offensive coordinator Bruce Adams connected some dots for his unit last week as West Jones put together a fine performance on that side of the ball. Stone was stunned by Picayune, 23-14, last Friday, so the Tomcats will not be in a purring mood when they claw their way onto Mustang Field. The Mustangs couldn’t care less about the mood of the Tomcats, because they are starting to smell blood in 3-5A.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Mustangs – 20
Stone – 7
Laurel at South Jones: These Tornadoes are about as predictable as a dust storm. Just when I was ready to relegate them to a third or fourth place finish in the region, they upset then front-running Quitman and forge a four-way tie for second place. Laurel has positioned themselves to take home at least second place, if they win out. How bad do they want it? Pretty bad!
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
South Jones – 14
Laurel – 31
Northeast Jones at Northeast Lauderdale: The Trogans have won three of four on their home turf this year. Their comfort at home gives them the edge in this one.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Trogans – 17
Tigers – 13
Philadelphia at Heidelberg: The Oilers host one of the better 3A teams in the state. The admission cost to this one will be worth seeing linebacker C.J. Johnson, one of the top juniors in the state. Just last week Johnson chose Mississippi State over offers from LSU and others. He is the main reason the Oilers will find it tough to get into any offensive rhythm.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Oilers – 6
Philadelphia – 28
Raleigh at Carthage: A win here by the Lions would thrust them into a decent position to slip into the playoffs. Raleigh plays in such a tough region that just getting into the postseason would be an accomplishment. However, once there they may do some damage, since their likely first round opponent won’t be as strong as the likes of Morton and Forest. Morton is their last region game, but Morton has to tangle with Velma Jackson and Forest on the road the two weeks before they travel to Smith County. If they come to Raleigh a little beat up, who knows what might happen. Don’t look to far ahead, Lions. Just take care of this one.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Raleigh – 35
Carthage – 12
Mize at Bay Springs: This battle of the ‘Dawgs should be good. Bay Springs has played pretty well over the past four weeks, despite losing three of those four. If Mize wins the next two weeks, they will set up a Smith County fire fight for the 7-2A crown. If Bay Springs wins, they will likely secure second place in the region. There will be lots of growling and barking at this one, but I think Mize has a little more mustard on its’ hot dog at this point of the season.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Mize – 26
Bay Springs – 18
Taylorsville at Stringer: The Tartars’ offensive pistons are pumping pretty hard right now, while the Devils seem to be stumbling down the home stretch. Stringer’s only hope is to turn this contest into a sloppy, defensive struggle. It’s hard to do that when those fleet-footed Tartars’ receivers are playing catch with Dominique Sullivan.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Tartars – 42
Stringer – 14
Heidelberg Academy at Benton: This game will serve as a barometer to see how the Rebels have progressed since being popped on the noggin by Alpha Christian six weeks ago. Benton’s team is about the equivalent of Alpha, so HA can see if they have really improved or just beaten up on inferior opposition.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Rebels – 28
Benton – 13
Sylva Bay at Prentiss Christian: Talk about balance. SBA head coach Chad Odom, who doubles as the offensive coordinator, is spreading the ball around nicely to his playmakers. Odom’s sharp play-calling certainly has defenses second-guessing and SBA fans grinning. Prentiss Christian sits at the top of District 8-A with SBA, both proudly displaying their 3-0 district marks. After Friday one of the teams will have a blemish on its’ district slate, and my prediction is that it’s going to be a long bus ride back home for Sylva Bay . . . to celebrate!
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Sylva Bay – 31
Prentiss – 14
Wayne Academy at Alpha: The Jaguars go on the road for their third tough district contest in a row. Better days are coming for Matt Hall’s crew, but one of them isn’t Friday.
Kevin’s Forecast . . .
Alpha – 27
Jaguars – 7
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